India’s solar module manufacturing capacity is set to exceed 125 GW by 2025, more than three times the country’s domestic demand of around 40 GW, according to Wood Mackenzie. The surge—fueled by the government’s Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme)—has driven rapid factory expansion but also raised concerns of overcapacity and unsold inventories, estimated at nearly 29 GW.
Exports to the U.S. have fallen sharply following new 50% import tariffs, intensifying pressure on Indian manufacturers, who are now pivoting back to the domestic market. Despite policy support through the Approved List of Models and Manufacturers (ALMM) and proposed anti-dumping duties, Indian-made modules remain $0.03–$0.06 per watt costlier than Chinese imports, exposing competitive challenges.
Analysts caution that long-term success will depend on research & development, next-generation solar technology, and export diversification into regions like Africa, Latin America, and Europe. According to CareEdge Advisory, India’s total solar capacity is projected to reach 216 GW by FY28, but experts warn that the focus must now shift from scale to sustainability to secure the sector’s future.
